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From SAPT.org:
Pakistan's slide towards state failure accelerated
dramatically in year 2007, and the assassination
of former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto on December
27 was a sharp reminder that the country's progressive
collapse was much more rapid and irretrievable
than most had envisaged. In more ways than one,
2007 was a cumulative reflection on all of President
Pervez Musharraf's errors of omission and commission
since he took power in the coup of October 1999...
for full Pakistan assessment: http://satp.org/satporgtp/countries/pakistan/index.htm
Balochistan (excerpt)
The Balochistan province – accounting
for approximately 44 per cent of Pakistan's landmass – is
now afflicted by an encompassing insurgency. Currently,
all 30 Districts of Balochistan are affected either
by a sub-nationalist tribal insurgency or, separately,
by Islamist extremism. Most of the violence in Balochistan
is, however, 'nationalist' and there is no co-operation
between pre-dominantly Pashtun Islamist militants in
the North and the Baloch nationalist insurgents. Structural
and constitutional biases prevailing against the provinces
feed popular anger and the insurgencies, and militate
against any possible solution to the Baloch problem,
particularly given Islamabad's track record of intransigence.
On the face of it, it seems that the
province has relatively calmed down after the assassination
of Nawab Akbar Khan Bugti on August 26, 2006, by the
military. The momentum of the Baloch insurgency declined
relatively in 2007, as some leaders either fled Pakistan
or were neutralized by the state. The operational capacity
of the Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA), the most
prominent insurgent group in Balochistan, was considerably
reduced in 2007 and is expected to remain diminished
in the immediate future. At least 450 persons, including
226 civilians, 82 soldiers and 142 insurgents, were
killed in 772 incidents in 2006. Violence in 2007 was
at relatively lower levels, with at least 245 persons,
including 124 civilians, killed in the year. But, the
insurgency continues to simmer, and there has been
a steady stream of bomb and rocket attacks on gas pipelines,
railway tracks, power transmission lines, bridges,
and communications infrastructure, as well as on military
establishments and Government facilities. The rebels
are still capable of carrying out acts of sabotage
on a daily basis across the province and a political
solution to the insurgency is nowhere in sight. Acts
of violence are, importantly, not restricted to a few
Districts, but are occurring in practically all of
them, including the provincial capital Quetta.
Still reeling under the loss caused
by the assassination of Nawab Akbar Bugti in August
2006, the Baloch insurgents were dealt another significant
blow when Nawabzada Balach Marri, purported chief of
the Balochistan Liberation Army, was killed on November
21, 2007. Marri was reportedly killed along with his
bodyguards in a clash somewhere inside Afghanistan,
triggering widespread violence in Quetta and other
parts of the province. Mystery shrouds Marri's killing,
as some reports suggested he was killed in Afghanistan
while others stated it was in Pakistan.
Adding to the Baloch insurgency are
the Islamist militants concentrated in the north of
the province, who are orchestrating violence on both
sides of the Afghan border in their areas of domination.
There were regular reports throughout 2007 of the presence
of al Qaeda-Taliban operatives in Balochistan. In fact,
Abul Haq Haqiq aka. Mohammad Hanif, an arrested Taliban
spokesman, reportedly told Afghan intelligence in January
2007 that the fugitive Taliban chief Mullah Mohammed
Omar was living in Quetta under the protection of the
Inter-Services Intelligence.
The Federal Government's experiment
of maintaining peace in Balochistan by converting the ‘B'
areas (where the Police do not operate) into ‘A' areas
(under Police jurisdiction) has failed to secure desired
results, with the crime ratio in ‘A' areas increasing
alarmingly over the past three years. The ‘Levies'
Force policed 95 per cent of Balochistan five years
ago, while just five per cent of the area was under
Police control. The Government abruptly decided to
abolish the centuries-old community-based Levies Force,
replacing it with the Police. Presently, 22 districts
of Balochistan are ‘A' areas and eight ‘B' districts
are yet to be converted. Official statistics stated
that as many as 1,170 people had been killed in Balochistan
since 2004. The number of murder cases in levy-controlled
areas was 542. More murders took place in 2005 (456)
as compared to 2004 (373) in ‘A' areas.
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